2012 NHL playoff predictions: Western Conference Semi-Finals

After going 3 for 4 in the Western Conference and hitting the 50% mark in the Eastern Conference Quarter-Final predicitions (5 for 8 overall in the first round of the NHL playoffs), here is our stab in the dark for the Semis:

(2) St. Louis Blues vs (8) Los Angeles Kings
Series winner: St. Louis Blues
My Nostradamus hat says: STL in 7
Why? At first glance, this series could be a toss-up between the St. Louis Blues and the Los Angeles Kings. Both teams finished off their first round opponents in 5 games with the Kings knocking off the 1st seeded Vancouver Canucks and Blues disposing of the San Jose Sharks. Their regular season series went in LA’s favor as the Kings beat the Blues 3 times and lost once in the shootout including two 1-0 games which suggests the matchup will be tight. Another hint that it will be a close series is the fact that both St. Louis and Los Angeles finished the regular season in 1st and 2nd spots respectively in goals against per game (1.89 vs 2.07) and were very close in goals for per game (2.51 vs 2.29). It was the same story on special teams with the Kings edging the Blues by only a few percentage points on both PP (17.0% vs 16.7%) and PK (87.0% vs 85.8%). This trend continued in the playoffs as both teams allowed only 8 goals in 5 games with the PK% being very close. The only flagrant difference was on the powerplay where the Blues connected at an eye opening 33.3% and the Kings at only 11.5%. This could be explained by a weak San Jose penalty killing unit and a strong Vancouver PK unit.

Analysing both teams positionally confirms the toss-up theory. Goaltending gives a (very) slight edge to the LA Kings with Jonathan Quick, Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak playing great all year. On the defensive side, it is the Blues turn to edge out the Kings. Both teams have defensive stars in Alex Pietrangelo, Kevin Shattenkirk and Drew Doughty but St. Louis’ depth overcomes that of LA. Offensively, the top two lines for each teams are a wash with LA having the better star power. But the overall offensive depth goes to the Blues as their bottom 2 lines are more refined than the Kings.

Overall, both teams play a good all around and disciplined game. Both teams are good 5 on 5, 4 on 5 and have good depth and great goaltending. Get ready for a long and difficult series with the St. Louis Blues edging out the Los Angeles Kings in game 7. The winner of this series may very well be the winner of the Nashville-Phoenix series as those two teams will pummel eachother.

Key fantasy player for St. Louis: Andy McDonald
Why? He was the catalyst offensively for the Blues in round 1 with 8 points in 5 games. He’s won a cup with Anaheim in 2006-2007 and knows what it takes to get there. Look for him to continue his scoring pace and lead St. Louis’ offense.

Key fantasy player for Los Angeles: Jonathan Quick
Why? With a Vezina nomination now under his belt, Jonathan Quick will want to prove (not that he needs to) why he earned it. If the Kings are to move onto the Western Conference Finals, Quick will have to provide solid goaltending once again as the Kings still haven’t found their scoring touch.

(3) Phoenix Coyotes vs (4) Nashville Predators
Series winner: Nashville Predators
My Nostradamus hat says: NSH in 6
Why? Both teams have no road complex as they hold a combined 5-0 record on opposing ices this post-season. So the concept of home-ice advantage is a tenuous one. Both teams also have similarities in regards to team defense, having allowed 2 or less goals per game in the post-season and being in the top-10 of that category during the regular season. Another element will be certain: great goaltending on both sides. After a miraculous first round series where he registered an 1.81 GAA and 0.950 SV%, we can expect Mike Smith to carry his great play to the Western Semi-Finals. He will get some solid opposition on Nashville’s side with a Pekka Rinne who has posted an identical 1.81 GAA and a 0.944 SV%.

Where Nashville can get a significant edge is definitely in terms of their overall offensive depth. The Predators are able to roll 3 high tempo offensive lines with the likes of Radulov, Legwand, the Kostitsyn Brothers, Fisher and Erat. At forward, the Coyotes are the less skilled team, and will try to tire the opposition down with a more grinding game, according to their larger, more robust personnel. When it comes the defensive player personnel, Nashville has the advantage of having the high-end guys in Ryan Suter and Shea Weber, while Phoenix relies of their unit of 6 to do the job. While Oliver Ekman-Larsson has played huge minutes in the first round (averaging over 26 minutes a night), the emergence of Kevin Klein on Nashville’s side will prove as a great advantage for playing against the Coyotes second line.

Special teams will be huge in this series as the top-ranked regular season powerplay in Nashville has struggled mightily in the first round. They will go against one of the best penalty-killing teams in the NHL, ranked 1st in the post-season and 8th during the regular season. If Phoenix can limit the Nashville powerplay, we might get a long series tilted in their way, but if they fail to do so, this one could be done earlier than expected.

Key fantasy player for Phoenix: Mike Smith
Why? Why change a winning formula? We picked Mike Smith as the Fantasy Performer of the Series and delivered. We mentioned his 1.81 GAA and 0.950 SV% in the West Quarter-Finals, but his 20-5-3 record post-All-Star-Game shows you he does one thing: win

Key fantasy player for Nashville: Pekka Rinne
Why? Well it’s going to be a goaltender’s battle during this playoff round. After a tremendous first round, Rinne will try to keep maintain his great level of play. His career record against Phoenix is remarkable: 8-5-1 with 4 shutouts, 2.05 GAA and 0.931 SV%.